World tobacco demand set to rise until 2010, but at slower rate – UN report

With smoking set to continue declining in developed countries while rising in poorer States, world tobacco demand is expected to increase until the year 2010 due to population and income growth, but at lower rates than in the past, according to a new United Nations study published today.

The number of smokers is expected to grow from 1.1 billion in 1998 to around 1.3 billion in 2010, an increase of about 1.5 per cent annually, according to the report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). But consumption per adult is expected to decline by around 10 per cent by 2010, and individual consumption will probably be around 1.4 kilos per year -- from around 1.6 kilos in 2000.

Applying an aggressive anti-smoking and anti-tobacco policy, consumption per person could even be cut by 20 per cent, FAO said.

Cigarette smoking is the most prevalent use, with China leading the world with some 320 million smokers. In India, the second most important consumer, smoking cigarettes accounts for only 25 per cent, with most people consuming the product in non-cigarette forms such as chewing.

Tobacco demand in developed countries is declining slowly and will reach about 2.05 million tons in 2010, 10 per cent lower than the 2.23 million tons consumed in 1998, FAO said. This can be attributed to slower population and income growth. Increasing awareness of the damaging health effects together with government anti-smoking measures such as banning advertising and greater taxation have also reduced tobacco consumption.

But more tobacco will be smoked in developing countries, where consumption is expected to grow to 5.09 million tons by 2010 from 4.2 million in the late 1990s, an average annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent, significantly lower than the 2.8 percent rate over the previous three decades.