Global drop in cereal production expected for 2003 - UN food agency

The world's total cereal production is expected to plunge sharply in 2003, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) December "food outlook" released today in Rome.

The monthly global information and early warning system on food and agriculture issues predicted that world cereal stocks for crop years ending in 2003 would drop to 466 million tons from their opening level of 576 million tons. The global cereal trade in 2002-2003 is likewise predicted to drop, down 5 million tons from the previous year's record level.

The UN agency also pointed to an overall weakening of international cereal prices "as non-traditional exporters continued to shift more of their domestic surpluses onto the world market," the outlook said.

The report also noted a number of additional trends, including the emergence of serious food shortages in eastern Africa and the continuance of the critical situation in southern Africa.