World airline passenger traffic expected to continue expanding, says UN agency

World airline passenger traffic is expected to continue expanding for the next three years following a strong rebound in 2004, which reversed a slump related to terrorism, a slowing economy, disease and the war in Iraq, according to the latest medium-term forecast released by the United Nations aviation agency today.

Passenger traffic measured in passenger kilometres performed (PKPs) is expected to grow by 7.6, 6.5 and 6.2 per cent in 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively, the Montreal-based the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) said.

Traffic suffered in 2001 and 2002 from a slowing world economy and the terrorist attacks against the United States on 11 September, 2001. In the first half of 2003, it was further negatively impacted by the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the war in Iraq, before starting to recover during the second half.

Last year’s estimated 14 per cent growth, in part, reflects the strong recovery by the airlines in Asia/Pacific, the region worst affected by the SARS outbreak. It was also supported by the improved performance of some regional economies and the sustained expansion of the Middle East economy, as well as the marginal decline in the cost of travel in real terms.

Total (international and domestic) scheduled passenger traffic generated by airlines of ICAO’s 188 Contracting States was 2,950 billion PKPs in 2001. For the years 2002 and 2003, it remained well below the level achieved in 2000 (3,038 billion PKPs). For 2004, the traffic is estimated at 3,442 billion PKPs. With the anticipated continuing

moderate performance of the world economy, traffic is expected to rise to about 3,705 PKPs in 2005, 3,947 PKPs in 2006 and 4,192 PKPs in 2007.