Year-end UN snapshot shows Asia-Pacific leading global economic recovery
A year-end update released today by the United Nations regional arm in Asia and the Pacific shows that the region is leading the global economic recovery, with the growth rate in 2010 forecast at 6.3 per cent – the highest in the world.
However, the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2009: Year-end Update also found that considerable uncertainties remain about the extent and durability of the recovery.
Published by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the report said that the region’s recovery depends very much on external factors. Key to the region’s exports, for example, will be the recovery of demand in developed countries.
According to the report, which examines progress since the launch of ESCAP’s flagship publication in March, China is forecast to experience the fastest growth in 2010, of 9 per cent, driven by public and private investment.
The domestic-demand led economies of India and Indonesia are also forecast to grow fast, at 7.5 per cent and 5 per cent respectively, driven by domestic consumption and investment, it added.
Also, major export-led economies are expected to experience substantial growth recovery next year, although not to the levels seen before the crisis: Singapore (3.5 per cent), the Philippines (3.5 per cent), Taiwan Province of China (3.5 per cent), Thailand (3 per cent), and Malaysia (2.5 per cent).
The report added that it is too early to withdraw existing supportive policies, and encouraged greater intra-regional cooperation to improve the ability of countries to better weather such crises in the future.
“The aftermath of the crisis has revealed the shifting axis of global growth to within the region and the need to devise regional supporting mechanisms through greater macroeconomic, trade and investment integration,” said Nagesh Kumar, ESCAP’s Chief Economist.
“Asia and the Pacific also must take a leading role commensurate with its importance in the global economy in discussions on reforming the international institutional and regulatory architecture,” he added.