The possibility of a deadly human influenza pandemic arising from the current outbreak of bird flu remains a serious threat which must be forestalled, leading public health officials warned today at the conclusion of a summit organized by the United Nations World Health Organization (WHO) in Geneva.
"We have seen how many countries were preparing for terrorism and bioterrorism and we wish to point out that Mother Nature is the biggest bioterrorism of all," Angus Nicoll of the United Kingdom told a WHO-moderated press briefing at the close of the three-day forum, which brought together more than 100 health experts.
Since the outbreak of avian influenza last December, at least 22 people have died and there are another 11 confirmed human cases of bird flu, while more than 100 million birds are estimated to have either died from the disease or been culled.
Although the number of infected humans remains relatively small, Dr. Klaus Stöhr, who heads WHO's Global Influenza Programme, put the possible threat into perspective by noting that the eight countries where bird flu has been found cover an area two times the size of Europe and house a population of roughly 1.5 billion people.
"If one would consider using antivirals in this region to stamp out an outbreak, one can easily calculate how many doses one would need if one would think about the type of saturation of the total population," he said. "Considering the current production capacities in antivirals, it would take years even to produce such a stockpile."
Still, experts at the forum agreed that antivirals are critical to stemming a possible pandemic. Dr. Teresa Tam of Canada explained that while they are not a panacea, these drugs could serve as an adjunct to vaccines. But she agreed that current production is inadequate. "There is no surge capacity right now identified and a stockpile must be developed for a pandemic response," she said. "There will not be enough time to generate more antivirals during a pandemic."
Experts want WHO to focus on creating global stockpiles for use in preventing human infections during animal outbreaks. These stores could be used to "quench small outbreaks at the start to try and avert or slow down a pandemic," Dr. Tam said.
Dr. Supamit Chunsuttiwat of Thailand said it is not feasible to stockpile vaccines for large-scale use during a pandemic because the inoculation can only be produced once the virus has been identified. It takes at least four to six months from that point to produce the first doses of vaccine, he added.
About 90 per cent of vaccines are produced in countries that house only 10 per cent of the global population. Experts noted that efforts must be made to support and assist the vast majority living in States with no production capacity.
In addition, countries with the weakest surveillance programmes - not just for influenza, but for other communicable diseases as well - tend to be the countries with the greatest chance of giving birth to a pandemic, Dr. Stöhr noted.
Professor Aileen Plant, from Curtin University of Technology in Australia, said it was vital to make sure all nations have access to rapid diagnostic tests for influenza.
"That sounds really easy to say, but it's actually quite difficult for many countries to have access to these tests, to be able to use them, to have good quality assurance, and to send the specimens on to reference laboratories to confirm what they find," she said.