Amid uncertainty, Asia-Pacific region to sustain growth in 2003, UN commission reports

The economies of Asian countries are expected to record good performances this year, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said today, attributing the growth to domestic factors and the stimulus provided by intra-regional trade.

“There is room for optimism amidst the current gloom,” ESCAP Executive Secretary Kim Hak-Su said in presenting the Commission’s Bulletin on Asia-Pacific Perspectives 2002/03, which was developed by a number of regional experts and deals with such issues as social protection, unemployment and good governance.

“The challenges facing ESCAP developing countries are to maintain the momentum of structural reform, commitment to trade liberalization, and take measures to enhance productivity and competitiveness,” said Mr. Kim. “They must also be alive to the looming danger of deflation.”

China and the Republic of Korea head the list of Asian countries forecast to have growing economies in 2002, with 7.6 per cent and 6.0 per cent increases, respectively. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s economic output is predicted to more than double in 2003, to 3.9 per cent from 1.7 per cent this year.

According to the publication, prospects for 2003 indicate that growth will be sustained with some marginal improvement over 2002. “There are nevertheless some risks and challenges ahead,” said ESCAP expert Raj Kumar.

“In the short-term, prolonged military action in Iraq may lead to disruptions in the energy and financial markets; there is also the ever-present danger of major terrorist outrages within or outside the region,” said Mr. Kumar. “Also in the short-term, expect faltering momentum of growth in the United States and European Union – despite recent interest rate cuts – and the anaemic Japanese economy.”